So I brought in Nick Varley, who ran the ground campaign for Vote Leave and built a 12,000-strong volunteer army from a standing start — twenty people and no referendum date — in eight months. He now leads UK campaigns at Crestview. Nobody is better placed to explain the part of Brexit the Cambridge Analytica story always skips: the shoe leather.

What we got into:

• The army from nothing. It started with Nick cold-calling Eurosceptics one at a time — "Alan, do you know anyone else who thinks like you?" Not scalable, not glamorous, and the foundation of everything.
• It wasn't really about immigration. For the twelve thousand, Nick says, it was sovereignty: "I could live with X, if we the voters had the power to decide."
• The "skint" theory of politics. Nick's whole model: politics runs on whether people feel broke — which is why "you'll be poorer if you leave" sounded, to a lot of voters, like an insult from the very people who'd made them poorer.
• How Obama backfired. The "back of the queue" line — a British staffer forgot to translate "queue" into American — and why Project Fear kept turning voters into angry voters.
• The worst arguments. Kittens (yes, kittens) for Leave; the "punishment budget" and the imminent collapse of the world's fifth-largest economy for Remain.
• Why Alberta should be watching. Referendums don't release pressure — they harden identities, and the losing side doesn't go away. Why Joseph thinks the first Alberta vote is the dangerous one.

Also discussed: bendy bananas, why a chocolate bar became a "chocolate-flavoured product," Scotland's "double leavers," the SNP sweep, and why businesses that pick a side in a referendum tend to regret it.

The through-line, ten years on: once a voter crosses an identity line, they rarely cross back. That's the warning Canada should take from Britain.

Nick Varley leads UK campaigns at Crestview Strategy — find him on LinkedIn, link below.

What we got into:

• This week's number: minus six. Nigel Farage's net approval on his handling of the Nowak case — the worst of any senior leader in Britain. Andrew has a Boris-shaped theory about why it might not matter.
• Two nights of Belfast riots. Water cannon in Newtownabbey, twelve injured officers...and expectation that a third night will rage on. Why Northern Ireland's fire burns on different fuel than England's.
• Why hasn't Canada had its Southampton? Same immigration anxieties, same online ecosystem, no riots. Andrew's answer involves dinghies, hotels, and what people can see from the war memorial.
• The thug problem. The rioters are making it harder to fix the very system some of them claim to be angry about — and the only winners are the actual far right.
• An opening for Kemi? Badenoch sits at plus twelve and keeps quietly stacking strong performances. We ask whether anyone will notice before they have to.
• Starmer's "island of strangers." The line that resonated, the 180 that followed, and what it says about who's allowed to talk about immigration.

Also discussed: Vancouver's curiously invisible World Cup, the case against $500 tickets, why Andrew is boycotting Belgium over his grandma's tortoiseshell cigarette case, and his suspiciously great skin and hair on CBC.

For Last Orders: Joseph is finally on to Wind of Change, the podcast asking whether the CIA wrote a Scorpions power ballad — and Andrew remembers Baroness Meta Ramsay, the softly spoken Labour peer he treated like his grandma on foreign delegations, who turned out to be one of MI6's most senior officers. Obituary linked below —https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/meta-ramsay-death-mi6-spy-b2985761.html.

If you haven't yet, find us on Apple Podcasts and YouTube, leave us a five-star rating, and drop your questions in the comments — that's what the Postbag is for.

What we got into:

• The recession nobody can feel. Two negative quarters, a textbook technical recession — and the economists shrugged while Pierre Poilievre reached for the megaphone. We get into which number actually moves a voter, and why 0.1% of GDP isn't it.
• A conservative won the Conservative party. Less obvious than it sounds. Kerry-Lynne Findlay ran as the only "true" conservative in the field and made everyone else argue on her turf — a purity test, inside a party stitched together from the refugees of a rival coalition.
• "Half the province is tied to a tree; the other half is trying to chop it down." Andrew's field guide to why nobody wins British Columbia as a conservative — you win as a coalition, or you don't win at all.
• The transfers that didn't transfer. When the third-place candidate dropped off, a sizable chunk of his vote wouldn't land on either finalist. We dig into what that says about a party with a split personality.
• The seat she doesn't have. Can you lead an opposition you can't sit in? The Carney precedent, Andrew's parliamentary traditionalism, and the awkward family math of getting Findlay into the legislature.
• A gift to the NDP, or lazy analysis? Cometh the hour, cometh the woman. Or cometh the disaster. We make the case both ways.

Also discussed: a Postbag full of Alberta alienation, and the conviction out west that Ottawa abandoned them first; Carney quietly losing an MP over climate policy; Howard Anglin's contrarian case for a looser confederation (my Last Order, linked below); and Andrew rediscovering San Francisco after 26 years, with the brewery that justified the detour.

Beating the NDP is the easy part to imagine. The hard part is whether the right can resist its favourite hobby — fighting itself — long enough to get there.

Anglin's piece is linked here, and the Postbag's always open — find us in the YouTube or Spotify comments.

It's also the first outing of the revamped format — a number, a postbag question, the deep dive, and last orders. Tell us what you make of it.

What we got into:

- The 7-point question. New Angus Reid polling shows that simply rewriting Alberta's 37-word ballot question in plain English moves support for staying from 60% to 67%. The wording is doing campaign work — and 51% of Albertans, including 38% of UCP voters, say the official version is confusing.

- A listener's smell test. After my conversation with Kyla, a listener asks what actually backs Pierre Poilievre's claim he can do better on the economy. Andrew on why opposition leaders rarely get to prove anything — and why, on credibility right now, Canadians have already chosen.

- Carney's "dangerous bluff." The Prime Minister came out swinging this week. Is naming the bluff plainly leadership — or does telling Albertans their vote is undemocratic just hand the Yes campaign exactly the grievance it feeds on?

- Why Brexit is the wrong analogy. Andrew calls it sloppy — then uses it himself three times, because Scotland 2014 is the real playbook. Better Together won, but won ugly. Project Fear, the Telegraph's referendum-day Burns poem, and why "you'll be poorer" lands badly on people who already feel poor.

- Andrew's best line. "For a lot of separatists, it's not so much they want to leave Canada. They feel Canada's left them." The whole Remain messaging problem in one sentence.

- The 25% threshold. I bring in Damon Centola's Change — why 35% Yes, with no campaign yet run, is closer to a 50/50 fight than dismissive eastern punditry wants to admit.

Also discussed: Andrew's accidental field trip to Leavenworth, Washington (a town that looks like Bavaria because of a 1960s economic-development study), why people in Vancouver can't walk in a straight line, my pick of Derek Thompson's Plain English on the global fertility crisis, and a brief debate over whether fewer humans on the planet is, on balance, a bad thing.

So we brought in Evan Menzies — Crestview Strategy VP, former director of communications for the United Conservative Party and the Wildrose caucus before it, with a front-row seat to the 2017 merger that created the UCP. He's spent years mobilizing grassroots support for Alberta's energy sector — so on the separatist base, he isn't guessing. And he's just written the conservative case for staying in Canada, the conversation we really wanted.

What we got into:

• The gong show, explained. A court ruling, a botched press release, and 700,000 signatures across two petitions — how Alberta ended up with two referendum questions and a constitutional headache.
• One question, two messages. "Do you want to leave Canada?" or "Do you want to stay?" — the wording is the whole ballgame, and the gentler version is both the Premier's escape hatch and the separatists' grievance.
• The establishment stitch-up. Andrew brings the Scottish and Brexit playbook: block the vote people want, and you don't kill the movement — you grow it.
• Gasoline and a match. Evan's sharpest line, on the pitch for a blank-slate constitution — building a country from scratch and hoping it works out "after the explosion."
• The pipeline clock. Shovels promised by September 2027, conveniently just before an election. What happens to the temperature if the ground is still frozen?
• The conservative case for Canada. Vimy Ridge, a Team Canada jersey, and why Evan thinks giving up on the country is the least conservative thing an Albertan could do.

Also discussed: why one in four Albertans you meet arrived in the last five years (we suspect Evan's own boosterism is to blame), the National Energy Program as Alberta's inherited trauma, why a Stéphane Dion unity tour is a federalist's nightmare, and Joseph's campaign to draft Evan as Alberta's next lieutenant governor.

Evan's read: the separation debate is mainstream now, the next four months are "a tornado," and the fight that matters may be the election that follows, not this fall's vote.

Find Evan's writing on Substack.

So we brought James back. Lord Wharton of Yarm — former Conservative MP for Stockton South, the kind of Red Wall seat Reform now eats for breakfast.

What we got into:

• Why Starmer probably survives the week. The would-be regicides aren't coordinated, aren't coalescing, and the PM has called their bluff. The catch: being a process-driven lawyer who decides he wants to stay is a survival strategy until it isn't.
• The Streeting moment that wasn't. Reports that the Health Secretary tried to see Starmer one-on-one after cabinet, and was told to wait. Why that matters more than it sounds.
• The Burnham brand puzzle. Why does the press keep calling the Mayor of Greater Manchester the saviour the Labour Party's been waiting for, when the by-election ground nearest his door just went Green? James and Andrew both served alongside him. Both have thoughts.
• Reform's ceiling problem. 1,453 councillors gained, 14 councils taken, breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales — and vote share still down from last year's locals. James on why this might be peak Reform, not the launchpad it looks like.
• The non-aggression pact question. Should the Tories cut a deal with Reform? James's answer is emphatic, and Andrew brings in the Canadian comparison — what actually had to happen before Reform and the PCs merged in 2003.
• The Carney contrast. James's best line of the episode: Carney is pulling off the trick Starmer was elected to do.

Also discussed: why Hackney's transgender-sanctuary-and-Palestine-twinning agenda doesn't speed up the bin collection, why Labour quietly cooled on votes at 16 once 16-year-olds started voting Green, and the evening with Liz Truss we both attended the night before recording.

Five-party politics, no majorities anywhere, and a Prime Minister whose own MPs can't decide whether to push him or just let him quietly tip over.

This week on Craft Politics: pollster and data scientist Kyla Ronellenfitsch joins Joseph Lavoie to answer whether the CPC has quietly lost its forty-year brand on the economy, with new data showing Mark Carney's Liberals now lead Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives on managing the cost of living.

We discuss:

• Why the Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points on managing the cost of living, and what that means for a forty-year Conservative brand asset
• The favourability ladder and why its order matters more than the horse race
• Why Poilievre's rebrand kept snapping back to attack mode, and whether the Davos speech quietly locked in Carney's brand
• The narrative reset on young Canadians — the CPC has gone from +35 to +5 with young men in sixteen months

Chapters:0:00 — Joseph admits he's been wrong on cost of living1:23 — Is cost of living still Canada's top issue?5:54 — The +5 disaster: how the Liberals took the CPC's brand11:15 — Carney halo vs Poilievre bad vibes14:42 — The Davos speech that wouldn't quit17:29 — The favourability ladder, top to bottom20:25 — Why Poilievre's rebrand snapped back24:41 — Stop saying young Canadians are conservative29:53 — The elder millennial sweet spot35:30 — Avi Lewis and the anti-corporate lane the NDP keeps missing40:42 — The single number to watch in twelve months

Find Kyla on Substack: https://relaywithkyla.substack.comListen to her podcast Culture Lab on Air Quotes Media

—

Craft Politics is a cross-border political podcast where Canadian and British experts come on to answer one political question per episode. Co-hosted by Joseph Lavoie (former senior advisor in a Canadian Prime Minister's Office) and Andrew Percy (former UK Conservative MP).

Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/craft-politics/id1790715962Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Zaw8zZHe7qiFYIby7lKRBWeb: https://www.craftpolitics.fm

Joseph Lavoie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/josephlavoie/Andrew Percy on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-percy-b996b431a/

Guest inquiries: joseph.lavoie@crestviewstrategy.com

#CraftPolitics #CanadianPolitics #Polling #PoliticalAnalysis #PoliticalResearch

What we got into:

• Why the CAQ is inching back. New premier Christine Fréchette is quietly stealing votes from the Liberals without really announcing anything. The "Fréchette as Mark Carney" framing is everywhere — Rudy explains why it's lazy.
• Charles Milliard's Bill 96 stumble. Three clarifications on the notwithstanding clause in one week. Rookie error or structural problem? (Probably both.)
• PSPP's doubling-down problem. He'd gain eight points by dropping the referendum promise. He won't. Even Lucien Bouchard has told him to walk it back. Rudy on why the rigidity actually matters.
• The Bill 21 wildcard. A Supreme Court decision is pending and could drop during the campaign. Why the outcome matters to every province, not just Quebec.
• Caucus management as stock exchange. Rudy's best line of the episode: when you're high in the polls, invest in your caucus — that's when you'll need the return later. A warning for Carney, and a post-mortem on Poilievre.
• The federal Conservative puzzle. Why Quebec keeps breaking the CPC's heart, and whether Dan Robertson's radical idea — stop running Conservative candidates in Quebec entirely — has any merit.

Also discussed: why Quebec staffers are quitting cabinet jobs now rather than six months from now (we've both been there), why "Premier of the West Island" isn't the same as Premier of Quebec, and how Fréchette showed up in Ottawa, demanded answers from Sean Fraser on the notwithstanding clause, and walked out looking like the strong woman in the room.

Three scenarios, minority government most likely, and the CAQ and the PCQ are both still very much wildcards.

Find Rudy on his French-language podcast https://www.youtube.com/@Danslescouloirs

We dig into what the majority actually unlocks (committees, not just vibes), whether Carney governs like he has a new mandate, and what the by-election numbers really tell us about where the Conservatives stand.

Then across the Atlantic: UK May elections are three weeks out. Reform projected to control 60 councils. Labour bracing for historic losses in England, Scotland, and Wales. Andrew breaks down what four-party politics actually looks like on the ground.

Plus: Orbán loses Hungary, and Quebec's October election just got a lot more interesting — the PQ is fading, the Liberals are surging under Charles Milliard, and the CAQ just chose Christine Fréchette as their new leader.

A deeper Quebec dive with a guest expert is coming soon.

Eric Grenier's analysis at The Writ: https://substack.com/home/post/p-193964435

They cover Trump's complete inversion of the standard wartime communications playbook — waiting a month to make his case while public support eroded beneath him. They dig into the regime change contradiction: Trump encouraged Iranians to rise up in the first days of the war, now says regime change was never the goal, and claims the remaining leadership is "less radical." Joseph and Andrew aren't buying it.

The conversation turns to the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran's IRGC is running a de facto toll booth — charging ships $2 million to pass, with China potentially assisting in the collection. Trump says the Strait will "open up naturally." Andrew argues the conflict isn't over until it's resolved, and that if the U.S. and Europe both refuse to secure it, Iran has no incentive to give up its leverage.

Andrew offers a provocative thought: the endgame might look remarkably similar to the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal that Trump tore up. And both hosts question whether Western leaders — Starmer, Carney, and others — have anything resembling a plan to deal with the economic fallout hitting consumers at the pump and the grocery store.

His platform: nationalize groceries, nationalize telecoms, build a million public homes, do banking through Canada Post, slap a wealth tax on the rich, tax oil and gas exports, and invest 2% of GDP in climate action. It's the most aggressively left federal platform in recent memory, and it won over about 40,000 NDP members who apparently liked what they heard.

Joseph and Andrew debate whether this is a stroke of genius or a spectacular miscalculation. The Corbyn comparison gets a full workout — and the part people forget is that Corbyn nearly won before he got crushed. Provincial NDP leaders started running for the exits within minutes. And the question nobody can answer yet: is there actually a market for left-wing populism in Canada, or has the NDP just made itself irrelevant to everyone except degree-educated urbanites who were already voting for them?

Story 2: "Go Get Your Own Oil"Coming Up

Trump told the UK — by name — to either buy American oil or "build up some delayed courage" and secure the Strait of Hormuz. Hegseth mocked the Royal Navy for good measure.

Andrew walks through the UK's North Sea drilling fight: Labour banned new exploration licences, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband won't budge, and the Conservatives and Reform are hammering the government with a simple question voters understand — why won't you let us use our own oil? The economics say it wouldn't move prices much. The politics say it doesn't matter.

Joseph and Andrew find common ground on the deeper problem: Western allies spent more energy punching Trump than engaging with the opportunity to confront Iran, and now everyone's paying for it — literally, at the pump. The conversation gets frank about what Europe and Canada left on the table.

Part two drops later this week with a full breakdown of the war in Iran once Trump has addressed the nation. Joseph and Andrew are also lining up future episodes on Australia's populist wave and the post-war regional power rebalancing.

What We Covered

Tim explains why the piece almost didn't happen — the Canada-Alabama GDP comparison first circulated in 2024, then got buried by the trade war and federal election. He'd always wondered whether the stat was real, pitched the story, and the editors sent him south.

What he found in Huntsville didn't match any Canadian stereotype of Alabama. The city sits in the foothills of the Appalachians, looks like Vermont from the mayor's office, and the dominant car in the biotech research park parking lot was a Subaru Outback. Mayor Tommy Battle, a real estate guy turned politician, has spent years rebranding the city as "Huntsville: a smart place" — complete with lapel pins.

Tim walks through Alabama's economic transformation, starting with Mercedes-Benz arriving in 1993 and triggering a cascade of auto manufacturers — Honda, Hyundai, Mazda, Toyota — that now produce nearly as many vehicles as Ontario. He met Greg Canfield, the state's former commerce secretary, who candidly acknowledged that Alabama's early tax incentives were unsustainably generous and had to be reformed. The key insight from Canfield: speed to market matters more than anything. Companies putting capital at risk want to earn it back fast, and Alabama let them build quickly.

That led to a discussion about Canada's regulatory environment. Joseph flagged the Enbridge pipeline refusal — the same week the piece came out, Enbridge said it wouldn't participate in the proposed Alberta-to-Pacific pipeline. Tim went further, noting that even people involved with major Canadian projects told him privately, in the last couple of weeks, that they don't know if their projects will get built. The variable nobody talks about enough, he said, is the courts — duty to consult rulings, judicial reviews, and First Nations groups that have learned to use legal processes to slow or stop development.

Andrew drew parallels to the regeneration of Greenville, South Carolina and northwestern Arkansas, and raised a critical constraint: the bond markets. The US can run a nearly $2 trillion annual deficit because of the dollar's reserve status. Canada and the UK simply can't play that game — as Britain learned during the Liz Truss mini-budget. Andrew also pushed back on the idea that southern US strategies are directly transferable, noting that lower union protections, weaker worker rights, and minimal safety nets are politically unacceptable in the UK and Canada regardless of which party is in power.

Tim acknowledged all of this but kept returning to a central point: Canada hides behind its morals. Public healthcare and public education are things he firmly believes in — but his kids' school in Toronto looks like a bomb shelter, and when he tried to get a wall painted through the parent council, he hit union rules and red tape. The healthcare system has the same problem: COVID exposed that the bottleneck was nurses and ICU beds, and years later, the nursing crisis persists.

The conversation closed on the question of what's actually learnable. Tim's answer: use tax policy selectively, build a brand again, and stop expecting investment to come to us. Andrew's answer: get past the reflexive anti-Americanism that prevents honest assessment of what's working south of the border.

The report examines 10 charities in depth — eight of which are under active Charity Commission investigation — and argues that the network has avoided serious scrutiny because regulators and officials feared being accused of racism.

Walney walks through the evidence, including a charity whose governing document required a trustee appointed by Iran's Supreme Leader, and explains why the UK's failure to proscribe the IRGC leaves the regulatory system unable to address the core problem.

The conversation also covers the UK government's newly announced Charity Commission powers and the risks posed by a proposed definition of anti-Muslim hostility.

• Walney's report identifies a network of Iranian-aligned organisations operating as registered charities in the UK. Four of the 10 charities examined qualify for Gift Aid — three of those are under active investigation.
• The Islamic Centre of England is described as a "central node" in the network. Until recently, its governing document required a trustee appointed by Iran's Supreme Leader.
• A former Charity Commission chair admitted that fear of racism allegations made the regulator reluctant to pursue investigations into these organisations.
• The Charity Commission's framework focuses on governance and compliance — not ideological alignment with hostile states — creating what Walney calls a "compliance trap."
• The UK government announced new Charity Commission powers to tackle extremism, timed closely with the report's release. Walney welcomes the announcement but says political leadership and culture change are needed to make it meaningful.
• The UK still has not proscribed the IRGC — unlike Canada, the US, the EU, Sweden, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. Walney argues proscription would make it significantly easier to shut down related activity.
• A new UK government definition of anti-Muslim hostility risks compounding the chilling effect that has already prevented action on Islamist extremism, though Walney notes efforts have been made to protect freedom of speech within it.

00:00 — Introduction and context: the Iran conflict and Walney's report01:29 — Andrew introduces Lord Walney03:39 — What does the Iranian charity network actually do?06:16 — Charities on the front line of pro-regime protests07:25 — Why has nobody dealt with this?11:22 — Political leadership and the tools gap at the Charity Commission13:16 — The Islamic Centre of England as "central node"15:04 — How embedded is the regime's influence?17:50 — The double standard: Islamist vs. far-right extremism19:38 — University links, IRGC recruitment, and the proscription gap22:46 — Response to the report: legal threats and personal risk27:45 — New Charity Commission powers: enough or window dressing?31:10 — The proposed anti-Muslim hostility definition and its risks37:30 — Why charity networks matter when drones are hitting British bases40:49 — Defending democracy: final reflections

Plus: the EU quietly drops a protectionist bombshell that nobody seems to want to call by its name, and Carney's Indo-Pacific tour delivers billions in announcements but can any of it replace what's at stake with the US?

The guys close with the latest Canadian polling — and why the Liberals might regret winning back their majority.

• The Iran war didn't start on February 28. The regime has been at war with its own people — and with the West — for 47 years. Treating the US-Israeli strikes as Day 1 skips a step.
• International law is being selectively invoked. Nobody marched when Hamas crossed a sovereign border. Nobody marched when the regime massacred tens of thousands of its own citizens in January. The outrage only shows up when the West acts.
• The opposition from the right (isolationism, cost) is different from the opposition on the left (the regime as victim). Both are wrong, but for very different reasons.
• Carney's initial statement was the right call — clear, decisive, among the most hawkish of any world leader. His walkback was driven by caucus management, not conviction.
• Starmer's response was embarrassing. A mix of lawyerly caution, Iraq hangover, and pandering to sectarian politics after a by-election loss to the Greens. It damaged the special relationship at exactly the wrong moment.
• The EU's Industrial Accelerator Act is tariffs by another name. Macron called Trump's tariffs destructive. Now the EU is doing the same thing and calling it resilience. Everyone's a hypocrite on trade.
• Carney's Indo-Pacific tour was impressive in presentation and announceables. But none of it replaces the US trade relationship — it's points of a percent versus multiple points of GDP.
• The Liberal lead over the Conservatives has grown to 14 points. Poilievre's tone is evolving, but he's fighting a caricature that won't shift overnight — especially with Trump in the White House as a contrast.

00:00 — Welcome back!00:30 — Iran: new supreme leader, oil weaponised, Trump's mixed signals02:57 — Andrew on the regime's 47-year war and the hypocrisy of international law04:48 — Nobody invoked international law on October 706:07 — Right-wing isolationism vs. left-wing moral inversion07:41 — The regime as imperialist — anti-imperialists supporting imperialism08:00 — Andrew on the hierarchy of evil and the hard left's blind spots11:33 — The domestic threat: IRGC activity in Canada, FBI warnings13:01 — Regime change vs. containment — what's the realistic outcome?15:40 — Can the Iranian people actually overthrow the regime?17:23 — Intelligence infiltration and psychological damage to the regime18:07 — Carney's flip-flop and Starmer's embarrassing response19:04 — Andrew on Starmer: Iraq hangover, sectarian politics, and the special relationship24:29 — Was Carney's walkback driven by Liberal caucus pressure?25:21 — Andrew's rant: we can't bring ourselves to say taking out this regime is a good thing27:30 — Story 2: The EU's "Made in Europe" Act — protectionism dressed up as policy30:25 — Andrew: everyone's a hypocrite on trade33:13 — Why anti-Trump framing lets the EU get away with it34:17 — Should the UK try to get in on Made in Europe?35:44 — Story 3: Carney's Indo-Pacific tour — India, Australia, Japan37:13 — Andrew: great announceables, but it doesn't replace the US39:37 — The real test is what happens with trade south40:24 — Chart of the week: Liberals lead Conservatives by 14 points43:03 — Poilievre's evolving tone — is it too late?45:29 — Andrew: Canadians want a contrast to Trump, not a copy46:50 — The NDP leadership race nobody's watching47:55 — Wrap

Key Takeaways

• Canada's polarization problem is primarily affective — Canadians aren't far apart on the spectrum, but they've developed strong negative feelings toward the other side. Even one step left or right of centre triggers in-group/out-group dynamics.
• The hostility is asymmetrical. Slightly left-of-centre Canadians view the right more negatively than slightly right-of-centre Canadians view the left.
• The far right is more likely to believe their views represent the majority. When elections don't reflect that, it feeds a sense of injustice and conspiratorial thinking.
• The "Civic Optimists" — Canadians most satisfied with democracy — skew heavily 55+. Younger Canadians are more cynical, more right-leaning, and more open to illiberal tactics. But they're also the strongest defenders of minority rights.
• Digital Public Square has been testing interventions that correct misperceptions about the other side, with early experimental evidence showing it builds empathy.

Chapters

00:00 — Cold open00:33 — Introduction: polarization in Canada and the UK02:14 — Affective vs. ideological polarization05:42 — The shifting definition of "the middle"08:13 — Political identity beyond politics: culture, sports, media12:28 — Who Canadians blame for polarization13:40 — Why the left is better at disliking the right16:24 — The far right's majority perception problem21:12 — The six segments: Frustrated Pessimists, Civic Optimists, and more27:20 — Young Canadians and the appetite for rule-bending leaders30:10 — What actually works: DPS interventions and evidence36:19 — Electoral reform debate — and Andrew's European pushback43:51 — Put the phone down and go to the pub

Links

• Full report: digitalpublicsquare.org
• DPS Substack: dpsorg.substack.com

Then, Canada's new defence industrial strategy gets the full treatment: half a trillion dollars in procurement, 70% Canadian content targets, and the messy gap between announcements and delivery.

The episode closes across the pond, where Keir Starmer has now executed over a dozen major U-turns — including reversing a plan to delay local elections, days after promising no more reversals. Joseph and Andrew compare approval ratings that tell two very different stories about what non-politician leaders look like when they work, and when they don't.

Key Takeaways

- Matt Jeneroux's floor crossing puts the Liberals within striking distance of a one-seat majority, pending three outstanding by-elections — one of which was previously decided by a single vote.

- With a potential majority in reach and strong polling, the political case for a 2026 snap election is weaker than it was a week ago; Carney appears more interested in building a track record than capitalizing on a polling window.

- Canada's new defense industrial strategy earmarks over $500B in procurement, aims to hit NATO's 2% GDP target ahead of schedule, and sets a goal of 5% by 2035 — but the real test is whether a new procurement agency can cut through decades of dysfunction.

- Carney's appointment of Janice Charette as chief trade negotiator with the U.S -- we're big fans.

- Starmer's approval rating has hit record lows — negative 47% — worse than any sitting British prime minister in polling history; the contrast with Carney's numbers is striking and worth understanding.

- The local elections U-turn is particularly damaging because it came days after Starmer explicitly ruled out more reversals; Reform UK forcing the government's hand via a legal challenge compounds the optics.

Chapters

0:00 — Welcome back + Alberta deep dive reaction

1:30 — Matt Jeneroux crosses the floor: what it means and why the Liberals wanted him

5:00 — Updated election outlook: is 2026 still happening?

8:30 — Mark Carney's governing style and why he keeps defying political convention

10:30 — Janice Charette named Canada's chief U.S. trade negotiator

14:00 — Canada's defense industrial strategy: half a trillion dollars and 70% Canadian procurement

19:30 — Keir Starmer reverses course on local elections — U-turn number 12+

23:30 — Approval ratings compared: Carney vs. Starmer

29:00 — Tumbler Ridge, partisan unity, and a moment worth noticing

32:00 — Wrap-up

Keywords

Matt Jeneroux floor crossing, Canadian federal politics 2026, Mark Carney majority, Liberal caucus, Canadian defense procurement, NATO spending Canada, Janice Charette, trade negotiator, Canada-US relations, Keir Starmer U-turns, UK local elections 2025, Starmer approval ratings, Reform UK, Craft Politics podcast

What We Covered

UK: Starmer's crumbling premiership. The Mandelson crisis has triggered a cascade — chief of staff gone, comms director gone, cabinet secretary potentially next. Scottish Labour's leader publicly called for Starmer to resign. The leadership contest seems to be happening already; Starmer just hasn't recognized he's toast. Andrew's take from the halls of Westminster: Labour MPs are depressed. Turns out governing is hard.

Canada: Poilievre's leadership math problem. He secured 87.4% at the leadership review — no surprise. But his personal approval keeps dropping while party polling stays stable. Six in ten Canadians say they're satisfied with Carney. The question now: can Poilievre close that gap before Carney calls an election?

Chart of the week: Polymarket on election timing. 44% chance of a Canadian election by June 30th — and trending up. We debate whether the Liberals should go early while the numbers look good, or whether snap elections have a way of backfiring spectacularly. (See: UK 2017.)

The last referendum in 1995? The "no" side won by 54,288 votes. Half a percent. Thirty years later, the separatist Parti Québécois is leading the polls with a commitment to hold another referendum by 2030.

We brought in Kevin Paquette, a colleague at Crestview who was president of the CAQ youth wing during the party's rise, to make sense of what's actually happening.

What We Covered

• The collapse of the third way. François Legault's CAQ offered Quebec nationalists a deal: protect the French language, get more autonomy, skip the referendum drama. The party went from 90 seats in 2022 to polling at near-extinction today.
• Support for the PQ doesn't mean support for sovereignty. Roughly 30% of current PQ voters would vote no in a referendum. People are parking votes with the PQ because they're fed up with everyone else.
• The Montreal-regions divide. Elections aren't won in Montreal. They're won in the francophone regions where people feel increasingly disconnected from a metropolitan core that doesn't share their lived experience.
• The Supreme Court wildcard. The upcoming decision on Bill 21 and the notwithstanding clause could hand the PQ a narrative that writes itself: we tried to make Canada work, and Canada said no.

Key Insight

Kevin's prediction: minority government, regardless of who wins. Both the CAQ and Liberals are picking new leaders months before the October 2026 election while the separatists cruise in the polls. A third referendum loss would end Quebec's leverage game with Ottawa permanently — which means nationalists may not actually want a referendum they might lose.

Guest

Kevin Paquette — public affairs consultant at Crestview Strategy, former CAQ youth wing president (2017–2019), and sharp observer of Quebec's regional-urban divide.

Plus: a deep dive into Trump's collapsing poll numbers across key demographics.

Topics Covered

1. Carney's Davos Speech — A "Rupture, Not a Transition"Mark Carney delivered a major address at the World Economic Forum arguing the post-Cold War rules-based order is no longer functioning. He urged middle powers to band together, warning "if you're not at the table, you're on the menu." The speech earned a rare standing ovation and continues making headlines a week later. Andrew draws parallels to the pre-WWI environment: militarism, alliances, imperialism, nationalism, and significant individuals.

2. Trump Rewrites Afghanistan HistoryTrump claimed NATO allies "stayed a little back, a little off the front lines" in Afghanistan — a statement contradicted by the 457 British and 158 Canadian deaths in the conflict. The hosts note Article 5 has only ever been invoked once: by the United States after 9/11, with allies responding. The King reportedly reached out, and Trump has since walked back the comments.

3. Andy Burnham Blocked from By-ElectionLabour's NEC prevented Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from standing in the Denton and Gorton by-election, citing the cost of a mayoral by-election. The hosts see it as a convenient mechanism to keep a potential Starmer rival out of Parliament — but note Labour may now lose the seat to Reform anyway.

4. Suella Braverman Defects to ReformFormer Home Secretary Suella Braverman became the third Conservative MP in a week to join Reform UK, following Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell. Holly notes her defection speech was notably polished and felt "authentic" given her long-held positions.

5. Trump's Polling CollapseJoseph shares data showing Trump losing support across nearly every demographic since 2024 — particularly among non-white voters and 18-29 year-olds. The hosts speculate whether the Minneapolis ICE retreat signals the first time Trump has recognized his base moving away from him on an issue.

Word of the Week: "Big Daddy Carns"Coined during the 2025 campaign when a woman heckled Carney with "Lead us, Big Daddy!" — now shorthand for his blend of "cheeky, charming competence."

Notable Quotes

• "The rules-based order has been dead for quite a while now... we've finally accepted it."
• "We're trying to rationalize something that's irrational. Disorder reigns."
• "The only time Article 5 has been used was in Afghanistan — by the United States."

The gang is back after a winter break—and they’re diving headfirst into the chaos that kicked off 2026. Joseph, Holly, and Andrew cover the escalating crisis over Trump’s Greenland obsession, a wave of Tory defections to Reform UK, Canada’s pivot to China, and some economic mood swings that don’t line up with the data. 🔥 In This Episode🧊 The Greenland Crisis Escalates- Trump threatens tariffs, floats military use, and posts AI images claiming US ownership- Is NATO broken beyond repair?- Why Canada and Europe may now have to act like middle powers—for real- “Trump always chickens out” or “this time it’s real”?🇨🇦 Canada’s Pivot to China- Mark Carney strikes a historic tariff deal with China- EVs and canola in, geopolitical certainty… TBD- What it signals about the new world order—and how Doug Ford feels about it🏛 UK Defections & Tory Discipline- Robert Jenrick and Andrew Rosindell jump ship to Reform- Kemi Badenoch clamps down: decisive leadership or brand dilution?- What this means for the future of Reform—and the shape of the Conservative Party📉 Vibes vs. Reality- Consumer confidence is up among younger voters—while older voters are gloomier than ever- Is this a vibescession or just a new kind of political identity?⸻🧠 Quick HitsWord of the Week:Vibescession — The economic slowdown that exists mostly in public perception.Number of the Week:$125 million — The estimated cost of renaming the US Department of Defense to the Department of War. Because priorities.🎙 Featuring:Joseph LavoieHolly Mumby-CroftAndrew Percy

Photo by Visit Greenland on Unsplash

It’s everything you’d expect from Craft Politics — unfiltered, occasionally insightful, and always a bit ridiculous.

🗳 Rapid-Fire Reflections:

• One word to sum up the political year? Fruitless, chaotic… and a bit shit.
• The story everyone thinks they understood?
  • Doug Ford’s World Series ad
  • Trump’s tariffs
  • Labour’s tax strategy — and still nobody gets it.
• What we’re all pretending won’t matter in 2026, but will?
  • Alberta separatism
  • UK house prices
  • defence spending… and apparently, Andrew’s age.

🔹 Serious Predictions:

• Canada heads to the polls — and the Conservatives win (Joseph)
• Conservative leadership could change… in Canada (Andrew)
• Reform UK will peak in spring… then fade (Holly)

🌶 Spicy Predictions:

• The Parti Québécois doesn’t win in Quebec — CAQ makes a surprise comeback (Joseph)
• Zack Polanski’s meteoric Green Party rise hits a bump (Holly)
• Something very spicy happens in Labour ranks (Andrew… vaguely)

🕵️‍♀️ Quiet Shifts to Watch:

• Canada’s election becomes about chaos vs. control
• Doug Ford and Donald Trump become unlikely friends
• Joseph steps down from the podcast due to… “an incident”

📊 Real Headline or Fake?

• Doug Ford on The Amazing Race?
• Signal-gate?
• Andrew Percy in the Lords?
  
  Let’s just say, trust no one — especially Grockipedia.

🗣️ Who Said It?

• “I don’t particularly want to wipe someone’s bum”
• “The best is yet to come… get the bungee harness ready”
• “I originally saw AI as an efficiency gain. I was wrong.”
  
  (Many of your favourites are quoted, willingly or not.)

🍺 Beer Notes or Erotic Fiction?

Andrew and Holly put Joseph’s Untappd beer reviews under the microscope.

Did he really say a beer had a “beautiful head”? Yes.

Did he really sneak one into a soccer match? Also yes.

Did any of it make sense? You be the judge

🏆 Year-End Awards

• Most Predictable Surprise: Angela Rayner resigns
• Best Attempt at Spin: Signal-gate
• Worst Use of a Chart: Lib Dems still doing Lib Dem things
• Phrase We Never Want to Hear Again: “Looks gorgeous. Tastes like a marvel.”

📉 Labour’s Budget Blunders: ‘Did She Mislead the Public?’

• We revisit last week’s autumn budget after a week of unravelling
• Rachel Reeves is under pressure over whether she misrepresented the fiscal headroom
• Communications have spiralled into a defensive posture: “Did she lie?” becomes the only story
• Holly shares her three-day rule: every budget turns to chaos within 72 hours — and this one delivered

⚖️ Trial Without Jury? The Justice Reform Turning Heads

• David Lammy’s proposal to remove jury trials for offences under 3 years sparks a major backlash
• Critics say it’s an attack on a centuries-old principle — and unlikely to solve case backlogs
• Andrew questions whether judges are being politicized, while Holly warns of a “slippery slope”
• Joseph notes this is another Labour announcement suffering from poor rollout and zero preconditioning

🇨🇦 Alberta’s Pipeline Deal with Ottawa: Real Progress or Political Cover?

• Joseph breaks down the new MOU between Alberta and the federal government
• The deal sets the stage for a new west coast pipeline — without consulting BC
• Premier Eby is furious, Carney is betting big, and Danielle Smith is walking a tightrope
• Andrew and Holly react to whether this kind of high-stakes, nation-building compromise could ever work in UK politics

We almost had a new entry for “Lipstick on a Gerbil” — our regular feature on political spin — but in the spirit of seasonal generosity, Andrew suggests giving UK ministers a break…for now.

The Labour government dropped its first full budget — and everyone’s claiming victory… or crying foul. This week, Joseph and Andrew are joined by Celia McSwaine (former Treasury SpAd) and Christine Quigley (Labour strategist) to unpack what it all means: from fiscal drag and frozen thresholds to the abolition of the two-child benefit cap and Kemi Badenoch’s show-stealing rebuttal.

We cover the politics, the process, and the problems still ahead.

💸 In This Episode:

📊 Labour’s Balancing Act

• “A budget where everyone gets something… and everyone pays for it.”

• Massive welfare spend, frozen tax thresholds, and the return of fiscal drag

• Why the OBR, not the Commons, may be in charge now

👶 The Two-Child Benefit Cap Is Gone

• Labour says it will lift 450,000 children out of poverty

• Critics say it penalizes middle earners and disincentivizes work

• Is this Labour morality — or Labour survival?

🎭 Budget Theatre: Kemi’s Big Moment

• Rachel Reeves made history — and played it safe

• Kemi Badenoch’s “call and response” rebuttal caught fire on social media

• From “mansplaining” to broken promises: who landed the bigger punch?

🧮 Behind the Curtain: How Budgets Get Made

• Celia McSwaine shares what it’s really like crafting a UK budget

• Why Rachel Reeves leaked everything

• And how “death by a thousand cuts” might come back to bite

⸻

🗞 Headlines of the Week:

• The Sun: “Benefit Street Budget”

• The Telegraph: “A Spiteful Raid on Middle England”

• The Mirror: “A Budget with a Labour Heart”

• The Daily Star: “The Budget That Stole Christmas”

Also, Prince Harry makes a surprise appearance… in our Lipstick on a Gerbil segment.

🏚 1. BBC on the Brink

We break down the resignation of BBC’s Director-General, Tim Davie, following a firestorm of scandals — including:

• A Panorama edit that deceptively spliced Trump’s speech
• Allegations of editorial bias on the Middle East and trans issues
• A crushing internal report that reveals the public broadcaster has lost trust across the political spectrum

We debate whether the BBC has become the UK’s next great institutional casualty — and ask:

Is this the moment it becomes the CBC of British politics?

“You don’t just lose public trust with bias — you lose it with smugness.”

💸 2. Canada’s Budget Gets Derailed by… Polievre?

It was supposed to be the biggest budget in a generation — but you wouldn’t know it based on the political headlines.

Instead, the story has been:

• Two MPs leave Pierre Poilievre’s caucus
• Allegations his office used oppo research to threaten MPs
• A leadership review coming in January

“The budget is a footnote in a week of internal Conservative chaos.”

We ask:

• Does this damage Poilievre’s image as a PM-in-waiting?
• Why is no one talking about the record-breaking deficit?
  
  And is anyone in Canadian politics actually focused on cost of living?

Joseph’s in a bad mood. Andrew’s six minutes late. Holly’s podcasting from a cow-filled Cumbrian farm. And somehow, this chaotic start perfectly mirrors the week in politics we’re about to unpack.

In this week’s Issue Scan, we tackle three big stories⸻

💸 1. Carney’s Budget of Austerity (Without Saying “Austerity”)

We preview Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget, which the Liberals are billing as transformational — but may look a lot like a cutback budget with better PR.

• Spending cuts to government operations

• Big promises on defense, trade and climate

• An electorate with zero patience and plummeting expectations

“It’s starting to feel like Canadians don’t want change — they want certainty.”

We debate:

• Is this a red-tinted version of David Cameron’s ‘Age of Austerity’?

• Will progressive voters tolerate fiscal discipline?

• And what happens if the elbow-throwing on trade still doesn’t land a deal with Trump?

🏘 2. Rachel Reeves’ Rental Row: A Crisis of DetailThe UK Chancellor has a problem: two letters, one missed license, and a husband who didn’t “sort it.”

We break down:

• The timeline of the scandal

• What it reveals about Labour’s growing housing PR headache

• And why this is more than just “admin error”

Lipstick on a Gerbil Score: 🧴

1 coat — “She said she took responsibility. But mostly blamed everyone else.”“If this were a Tory, Labour would have eaten them alive. But now? Just more letters on Starmer’s desk.”

🇳🇱 3. Dutch Election Surprise: Populists Rejected?

Andrew brings us a European update as the Dutch electorate gives populism a timeout — rejecting Geert Wilders and rewarding centrist parties.

• What went wrong for the populists this time?

• Is this a snapback to the centre or a one-off?

• And what could it mean for Farage-style politics elsewhere?

Populists won power, disappointed voters, and got punished. So what comes next?”

When Aston Villa banned Israeli fans from attending their upcoming UEFA fixture, citing security risks, it sparked outrage — and raised serious questions.

• Why did local UK officials capitulate to pressure from anti-Israel campaigners?
• How did Birmingham end up, as Andrew puts it, “effectively declared Judenfrei”?
• What does this mean for sport as a safe and unifying space?

“If you threaten violence, you win. That’s the message. It’s shameful.”

🇬🇧 2. Blaming Brexit — Labour’s Budget Pre-Spin

Ahead of the UK’s autumn budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves claims Brexit, austerity, and productivity slumps have created a deep funding hole.

We debate:

• Is this a smart preconditioning move — or a dangerous misread of voters?
• Are Labour making Reform’s case for them?
• And how long can you keep blaming decisions from eight years ago?

“They’re telling voters they were stupid. Farage couldn’t have scripted it better.”

🇨🇦 3. Poilievre’s RCMP Blunder — Just Off the Cuff?

Pierre Poilievre is on cleanup duty after comments he made accusing the RCMP of covering up Trudeau-era scandals. He says it was aimed at former commissioner Brenda Lucki — not the force itself. But the damage may already be done.

• Was it an off-the-cuff moment of honesty or a Trump-style overreach?
• Is it alienating swing voters just when the Tories should be widening their appeal?
• And what does it say about how Poilievre handles comfort-zone media?

“He needs to be most careful when he’s most comfortable.”

💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Penny Wong Defends Trump’s Takedown of Kevin Rudd

In our favourite comms segment, we rate Australia’s Foreign Minister as she tries to explain away Donald Trump’s brutal dismissal of Ambassador (and ex-PM) Kevin Rudd:

Our rating?

🧴 One coat — Barely concealed, pivoted well, but we’re not buying it.

“I don’t like him… and I probably never will.”

This week, Joseph and Holly are joined by long-time conservative strategist Dan Robertson, who has an unconventional set of ideas: Canada’s Conservative Party can’t out-campaign a system rigged against it.

Dan’s solution? Structural reform. In a recent op-ed, he outlines three controversial but compelling ideas to level the playing field—and maybe even turn the Tories into a true national contender again.

1. Proportional Representation

• Why the “first past the post” system doesn’t actually benefit conservatives
• How PR could eliminate the Liberals’ advantage in voter efficiency
• And why Canada’s system keeps millions of centre-right votes from counting at all
  
  “I’d love to see conservatives champion competition everywhere—except in politics. It makes no sense.”

2. Mandatory Voting

• Why the right underperforms in low-turnout elections
• A civic case for participation as a duty of citizenship
• And what Australia can teach Canada about centre-right success in a compulsory voting system
  
  “This is the bare minimum of civic service. If we believe in responsibility, this is a no-brainer.”

3. A New Strategy for Quebec

• Dan proposes the unthinkable: Fold the federal Conservative brand in Quebec
• Instead, back a CAQ-style provincial-federal hybrid party
• And model a new electoral coalition—just like the CDU–CSU in Germany.

“In Quebec, we’re foreigners. It’s not ideological. It’s tribal. We need to rethink everything.”

🎧 Plus:

• Could these reforms actually help turnout?
• Why voter apathy might be structural, not cultural
• And how to build a cross-partisan case for political reform, even on the right

🧭 What’s Inside:

🇮🇱 20 Hostages Freed — Can Trump Deliver Peace in Gaza?

• All living hostages have been returned after 738 days in captivity
• Trump takes centre stage in the peace process — with the kind of leverage few global leaders can summon
• Holly, Andrew, and Joseph debate whether this moment is a turning point or a temporary pause in a brutal conflict

“Let’s not underestimate what Trump has already achieved in returning the hostages. That’s a phenomenal and important win.”

🌍 Canada’s Climate Pivot & the India Reset

• Ottawa hints at a climate competitiveness strategy focused on jobs over targets
• Carney’s Liberals soften the climate line, downplay emissions caps, and seek Alberta buy-in
• At the same time, Canada and India agree to reset diplomatic relations after a two-year rupture

“You can feel the contrast with the Trudeau era. There’s a shift toward pragmatism—jobs, trade, and economic security.”

💸 Britain’s Inflation Warning: Highest in the G7 (Again)

• IMF says UK inflation will outpace every other G7 country through 2026
• Food, hospitality, and taxes are driving the pressure
• Kemi’s Tories pitch tax relief and spending restraint — but will anyone buy it?

“You’re paying more tax but getting worse services. That’s why inflation feels higher than it is.”

💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: Melanie Joly Spins the Stalled Trump Talks

Canada’s Industry Minister tries to explain what the second visit to the White House has produced — and comes up short.

“One and a half coats. Solid performance, but there’s only so many times you can say we’re still talking.”

Joseph’s away, so the adults are off-duty — and the former MPs are in charge.

In this special Tory Party Conference edition, Andrew and Holly are joined by their old colleague (and flatmate) Antony Higginbotham — back from the ground in Manchester with gossip, grit, and grim assessments of where the Conservative Party stands post-election.

🧭 What’s Inside:

🚪 Low turnout, low energy, lower expectations

• This year’s Tory conference felt like a wake: fewer lobbyists, fewer ministers, and… fewer rumours
• Some MPs showed up to mourn; others showed up to rebuild
• Shadow ministers name-dropped Kemi, but were they really rallying around her?

“If the Tory Party has stopped producing good gossip… that may be the most dangerous sign yet.”

💥 Still relevant? Or a brand waiting to be rebought?

• Antony offers a brutal but honest diagnosis:
• The party may be down — but if the Woolworths model holds, it’s still salvageable. Eventually.

“No one trusts the policies or the people—but the brand still has residual value.”

📉 A generational void and the candidate drought

• Too few safe seats to attract serious talent
• Too many 2024 losers who only want to return if they get a guarantee
• A pipeline problem for any future right-of-centre government

“We’ll need to form a government with people who aren’t even MPs yet — and that’s a problem.”

💬 The reform shadow, Kemi’s moment, and leadership gossip

• May’s local elections could be the breaking point
• But scar tissue from years of churn might delay any internal revolt
• And reform continues to absorb “the laziest defectors” — in Anthony’s words — without a clear plan to use them

We go deep on the future of the right across the Anglosphere:

🇬🇧 Is the British Conservative Party dead or just regenerating?

🇺🇸 Has the U.S. abandoned the world it built?

🇨🇦 Why is Canadian conservatism still the sanest?

🗳 And is the UK heading toward a merger moment like Canada’s in 2003?

🧭 What We Cover

1. The Anglosphere’s Conservative Crisis

• How lockdown changed the role of the state
• Why “Trumpism” is reshaping the right in every country — including Iceland
  
  And why Canada may be the only place where centre-right politics still feel normal

• “Preserving the sanity and civility of Canadian politics is no small prize.” — Hannan
  
  
  
  
  2. Can Reform and the Tories Work Together?
  • Hannan lays out the most detailed case yet for a non-merger, non-coalition electoral pact — and explains why time is running out.
  • He also draws a direct line from Farage’s playbook to Canada’s 1993-2003 Reform-Conservative story — and suggests it may all play out again, faster than we think.
  
  
  
  
  
  “If we were all Dr. Spock from Star Trek, we’d have done this by now.”
  
  
  
  
  3. The Long History of Toryism
  
  Daniel is writing the first comprehensive history of the Conservative Party — from the 1600s onward.
  
  
  
  
  He reminds us why old parties shouldn’t be underestimated… and why “Toryism” might survive even if the Tory party doesn’t.

4. On Brexit: Not a disaster — just underused

We close the episode by tackling the narrative around Brexit’s so-called failure.

“Brexit didn’t make you richer or poorer. It gave you back the right to make different choices. Whether you succeed or fail depends on what you do next.”

🎧 This is one of our favourite episodes of the season. Whether you’re a political junkie, a student of history, or just trying to make sense of where the right goes next — don’t miss it.

🌍 A 20-point postwar plan for Gaza

🇬🇧 Labour’s conference drama (or lack thereof)

📬 And a Canada Post strike that’s gone… oddly unnoticed?

Joseph, Andrew, and Holly break down the headlines with just enough disagreement to keep things honest — and just enough beer to keep things friendly.

This week, we covered everything from Trump’s sudden about-face on Ukraine, to Keir Starmer’s high-stakes state visit with the same man, to Ed Davey’s surprisingly jazzy Lib Dem conference. And yes, we finally got Andrew back — fresh from California and full of strong beer opinions.

We also welcomed some new (and critical!) listeners. One thinks our intro banter is interminable. Sorry critics, the useless banter is not going anywhere.

Here’s what’s inside:

🌍 Trump’s Big Pivot on Ukraine“He gave Putin the red carpet—and got played. That’s personal for Trump.”

• 🇺🇸 After months of hedging, Donald Trump now says Ukraine can win back all its territory
• 🤔 Is this a genuine shift or just Trump being Trump?
• 🧠 The team debates whether U.S. aid policy is really changing — or just being rebranded
• ⚠️ Why NATO should be paying close attention to the timing, tone, and implications

🇬🇧 Trump’s UK State Visit“Success these days is: no Epstein questions and no one got deported.”

• 👑 Red carpets, royal banquets, and a tech prosperity pact
• 🎩 Starmer survives the visit unscathed—just barely
• 💥 Trump praises Britain by day, blasts Europe at the UN by night
• 🧾 Did any of it actually matter? Or was the goal simply to avoid disaster?

🇬🇧 Lib Dems vs Reform UK“If you’re trying to win back Tory moderates… they may not exist anymore.”

• 🎺 Ed Davey leads a marching band into conference season (literally)
• 📣 40+ references to Nigel Farage in one speech — is this strategy or desperation?
• 🧠 The crew dissects whether the Lib Dems are targeting the wrong voters in their anti-Reform push

(But don’t worry, we’ll have more maple-flavoured content next week.)

🇨🇦 Canada Skipped This Week…

💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil “When you’re picking up your bag before the interview ends… it’s not a great sign.”

🎙 This week’s entry: Liz Kendall dodges every hard question on immigration with a smile

• ✅ Did she defend an unworkable “one-in-one-out” policy? Not really.
• 🧃 Did she charm the press and survive the interview? Absolutely.

Plus, our favourite comms segment—Lipstick on a Gerbil—features an impossible task: defending Peter Mandelson.

With Percy mostly frozen on screen (literally), Joseph and Holly carry the show. Here’s what’s inside:

🇬🇧 UK: Mandelson, Epstein, and the Labour Meltdown

• ❌ Peter Mandelson is sacked as UK ambassador to the US after emails surface linking him to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein
• 🧨 Starmer’s judgment under fire—did he know more than he admitted during PMQs?
• 🗳 Backbench muttering begins. Is May 2026 the unofficial deadline for a leadership change?
• 📉 Labour infighting, ministerial fatigue, and growing pressure from Andy Burnham

🔁 Meanwhile, the Conservatives lose… to Reform

• 🧍‍♂️ MP Danny Kruger defects to Reform UK, declaring: “The Conservative Party is dead.”
• 🤷‍♀️ Holly isn’t so sure: is this the start of a cascade, or just posturing between conferences?

🇺🇸 US: The Shooting of Charlie Kirk

• 💥 A high-profile act of political violence rocks the U.S.—and spreads globally
• 📱 The power (and danger) of social media virality in shaping public fear
• 🛑 What it means for public office, political recruitment, and the future of civil discourse

🇨🇦 Canada: The PM’s Housing Blitz

• 🏘 Mark Carney launches Build Canada Homes, a new federal agency with a $13B mandate
• 📈 Goal: 4,000 factory-built homes across 6 sites, using federal land and Canadian materials
• 🏗 But is launching a new bureaucracy really the best way to fight bureaucracy?

💄 Lipstick on a Gerbil: The Matt Tapp Clip

• 🎤 Labour Minister Matt Tapp sent out to defend Peter Mandelson’s appointment… hours before the sacking
• 🐽 Did he even try to apply lipstick? Or did he wisely avoid putting his fingerprints on the mess?

This week, we ask Ginny:

• 🔄 Rebuilding the narrative: What should Poilievre say (and not say) in Question Period to shift the political terrain?
• 💸 Cost of living, crime, and immigration: Ginny argues that these remain the three most potent issues for Conservatives—and where Carney is most vulnerable.
• 🧠 Tone, authenticity & voter math: Is it a “likeability” problem—or a coalition problem? Ginny breaks down what the real issue is.
• 🧨 The TFW announcement: Why Poilievre’s stance on temporary foreign workers matters more than it looks.
• ⚖️ Keeping the base AND growing the tent: Can the Conservatives do what no other right-of-centre party has managed in the West—hold both the traditional right and new right together?

Poilievre faces a leadership review vote in Calgary this January. We ask:

• Is there a credible alternative if he stumbles?
• And what issues should the Conservatives own to change the math before 2026?

🎧 This is a must-listen episode for political observers looking to understand the next phase of Conservative strategy, and the dynamics reshaping Canadian politics.

🎙 Featuring:

Joseph Lavoie

Andrew Percy

Special Guest: Ginny Roth

🧠 Key insights from Ginny Roth:

“No one cares if you say ‘I told you so.’”

“Poilievre’s real risk isn’t likability—it’s losing the disaffected voters he brought into the tent last time.”

“The federal NDP and Western NDP are essentially two different parties.”

Joseph, Andrew, and Holly return with another Issue Scan—three stories, three jurisdictions, and one increasingly depressing outlook on the Western political economy. But don’t worry, we offset the doom with solid banter, questionable French pronunciation, and beer reviews.

🧭 Here’s what’s inside this week’s scan:

🇬🇧 UK: The Reshuffle That Changes Nothing

Angela Rayner is out as Deputy PM. David Lammy is in. Yvette Cooper moves to Foreign Secretary. And still, Starmer’s government looks… wobbly.

• 🤔 Does reshuffling help when the fundamentals remain unchanged?
• 🎯 Are Labour’s backbenchers already preparing for war?
• 🧨 Holly and Andrew reflect on just how hard it is to govern—even when the adults are in charge.

🇨🇦 Canada: The Economic Squeeze Tightens

The latest numbers are grim:

• GDP down 1.6%
• Unemployment at 7.1% (highest since 2016)
• Youth unemployment? A staggering 14.5%
• Export plunge led by a 25% drop in passenger vehicle sales

💸 Prime Minister Carney tries to counter with $5B in tariff relief and a freeze on EV mandates—but will any of it matter if affordability keeps getting worse?

🇫🇷 France: Chaos, Again

The curse of Craft Politics strikes again. Since last week’s episode:

• The French government collapsed.
• Macron appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the new Prime Minister.
  
  That makes four PMs in four years.

This week, we’re joined by Andrew MacDougall, a fellow Harper PMO alum and one of the sharpest communications minds in the business. His latest paper for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute makes a bold case: that the attention economy, powered by Big Tech platforms, is actively undermining Western democracy—and that we’re letting it happen.

In this episode:

• 📱 What is the attention economy—and why it’s designed to addict, distract, and divide
• 🧠 Why today’s tech platforms are built to exploit your brain’s dopamine pathways
• 💥 Free speech vs. free reach: why more speech doesn’t mean better speech
• 🗞 How the collapse of traditional media business models is breaking political accountability
• 🗳 Why politicians like Trump and Farage thrive—and leaders like Harper and Starmer struggle—in today’s media environment

Also in this episode:

• 🧃 “The vegetable is the news, the dessert is content—and nobody’s eating their vegetables”
• 🧨 Why platforms like YouTube and TikTok aren’t neutral—they actively reward the worst takes
• 🤳 Why even good communicators struggle to compete with rage bait and algorithmic triggers
• 📊 What happens when every push notification must compete with Kim Kardashian, a war in Ukraine, and your local school board

And don’t miss:

• 🧾 Andrew’s proposal for an engagement-based tax to discourage addictive platform design
• 📉 How banning smartphones for kids—and showing users their “attention cost”—could help
• 🔌 What would happen if we unplugged the internet for just a month (hint: less Trump, more sanity)

Plus:

• 😬 Percy tries to warn us about AI-generated ‘80s nostalgia reels
• 📵 Joseph tries not to check his phone for a full 45 minutes (he fails)
• 💡 A very serious policy discussion… followed by a confession that we’re all still putting the clips on TikTok

We’re thrilled to welcome Holly Mumby-Croft, former UK Member of Parliament, to the pod. She’ll join Percy and I each week for our Tuesday Issue Scan episode, adding deep political insight and a healthy counter-weight to Percy...

In this episode:

• 🇬🇧 Labour’s economic mess: Starmer sidelines Reeves, reshuffles advisors, and still can’t land the message
• 📉 Reform UK leads the polls—now ahead of Labour and the Conservatives combined
• 🏴 National flag protests, economic confusion, and the risk of a populist summer boil-over
• 🇨🇦 Canada’s Trump problem continues: no deal, no clarity, and no end in sight
• 📊 Carney’s super honeymoon: how long can he ride high on sky-high approval ratings?
• 🇫🇷 Why France’s looming debt crisis could become everyone’s problem
• 💸 What happens when both the left and the right promise unsustainable spending?
• 🚨 A special new segment: “Lipstick on a Gerbil” — where we rate the worst political comms moments of the week. This week we look at Angela Rayner’s stamp duty dodge and Stephen Kinnock’s weasel-worded defence

And of course:

• 🍺 Joseph and Percy drink one of BC’s finest Pilsners
• 🍷 Holly sips Ribena

It’s our final episode before a short summer break—and we’re closing it out with a cheeky half pint and a big-picture scan of the trade and political chaos unfolding across Canada, the US, and the UK.

In this episode:

• 🇨🇦 Carney concedes “tariff-free” deal with Trump is unlikely
  
   • What the PM’s first public walk-back says about expectations management
  
   • Does accepting some tariffs help or hurt Canada’s leverage?
  
   • And what is a “win” supposed to look like?
• 🇺🇸 US inflation hits 2.7% as tariffs bite
  
   • Will Trump’s economic strategy come back to haunt him before the holidays?
  
   • Why tariffs are a slow burn—but a real one
  
   • And how Trump’s goldfish memory makes planning impossible
• 📉 White House calls for interest rate cuts while raising consumer prices?
  
   • We discuss the economic contradiction—and why it’s eroding confidence

Also in this episode:

• 📊 The super honeymoon continues: Carney approval hits 58%, Liberals lead by 13
• 🧠 What the Conservatives need to ask themselves about the Poilievre playbook
• 🔄 Can Carney hold his coalition together if Trump fades as the ballot question?
• 🚫 NDP leadership race kicks off—with a $100,000 entry fee. Is that populist?

Across the pond:

• 🇬🇧 Labour faces a new challenge—from the left
  
   • A hard-left breakaway party is forming. Could it fracture Labour’s already unstable coalition?
  
   • Why UK politics remains a mess—despite a massive Labour majority
  
   • And why the Conservative Party still doesn’t know what it stands for

We close with:

• 🍺 Tasting notes from our final craft beer of the season
• 🤦 Percy gets mistaken for a 30-year-old’s father
• 🔥 And a conversation about political anger, violent rhetoric, and the lines we should never cross

🔊 Listen now to wrap your week—and the political season—with insight, irreverence, and a few sips of lemon meringue beer.

We revisit the 2025 Canadian federal election—not with hot takes, but with hard data.

Our guest is Hunter Knifton, the analyst behind the Charting Canada Substack, who’s challenging two of the most commonly accepted narratives about the election.

In this episode:

• 🗳 The myth of the “NDP-to-Conservative switcher”: why it’s not supported by the numbers
• 📉 Why the collapse of the PPC—not a working-class revolt—may explain Conservative gains in key ridings
• 👥 Who actually switched votes—and where? A closer look at new voters, older swing voters, and Carney Conservatives
• 🔄 Why the left didn’t just coalesce around the Liberals—and why the right’s coalition might be more stable than it looks

Plus:

• 🧭 Hunter breaks down his five-part typology of Carney’s voter base—from downtown professionals to rural commuters
• 🧱 What the suburban and rural wins say about the Liberals’ long-term potential
• 🔍 Are the Conservatives targeting the wrong voters with their union strategy?

And don’t miss:

• 🔮 Could Carney’s voter coalition outlast the crisis that built it?
• 🧠 What Pierre Poilievre’s team might need to rethink before the next election
• 📊 A sneak peek at Hunter’s next analysis: are we entering a permanent two-party system—or was 2025 a one-off?

🔊 Listen now if you want a clearer picture of what actually happened in the last election—and why most of us probably got it wrong.

It’s been six months since Mark Carney smashed through the wall of Canadian politics and declared, “This is a crisis.”

He’s been elected. He’s governing. And he’s moving fast.

But how far can a technocrat push before political gravity kicks in?

To take stock of Carney’s first chapter as Prime Minister, we’re joined by Bridget Howe and Sarina Rehal—two Liberal insiders with deep experience in government, campaigns, and caucus dynamics. They give us an unvarnished read on the Carney style, the risks ahead, and what might break first.

In this episode:

• 🧭 How Carney governs—and why it’s a sharp break from Trudeau
• ⏱ The pace of change: real momentum or just top-down theatrics?
• 🧠 Why he’s (so far) been a political novice in name only
• 🤝 Caucus management, cabinet churn, and how long his honeymoon can actually last

Plus:

• 🇺🇸 Can Carney hold the coalition together once Trump fatigue sets in?
• 💸 From scrapping the carbon tax to cutting the digital services tax—how is Carney going to pay for this?
• 🧯 Is he raising expectations faster than government can meet them?

And don’t miss:

• 📉 Why Liberals aren’t missing Pierre Poilievre—or Justin Trudeau
• ⚔️ Can Carney avoid a BC-style fracture over major projects and pipelines?
• 💬 Why Bridget and Sarina disagree on who the Liberals really want to lead the Conservatives

Also in this episode:

• 📊 What Carney needs to deliver by fall to prove this isn’t just business as usual
• 🔮 Is he in it for the long haul—or just the crisis?

This week, we’re joined by Sam Coates, co-host of Politics at Sam and Anne and one of the UK’s sharpest political analysts, to make sense of a government struggling to hold the line—on foreign policy, economic discipline, and party unity.

In this episode:

• ⚖️ How Starmer’s deference to legal advice is reshaping UK foreign policy—and what it reveals about his break from Blairism
• 🇺🇸 What it means when the UK is the only country warned in advance of a US strike
• 📉 And why the transatlantic relationship may be less stable than it seems

Then we go domestic:

• 💷 Labour’s looming rebellion on welfare reform:
  
   • Over 100 Labour MPs openly defying the PM
  
   • A government with a 165-seat majority on the verge of losing a key vote
  
   • And no clear plan for what comes next
• 🧨 Starmer’s political gamble: alienating his base to keep markets calm—and failing to please either
• 🗳 Could this trigger a leadership challenge?

And don’t miss:

• 📈 Reform UK’s surge: is Prime Minister Farage still far-fetched—or suddenly plausible?
• 🗺 The open question: what is the relationship between Reform and the Conservatives heading into 2028?

Also on the radar:

• ⚖️ Assisted dying and abortion: the social policies no one campaigned on—but that may define this Parliament

This week, Israel launched one of the most significant military operations of our time—decimating Iranian nuclear infrastructure, IRGC command, and ballistic capabilities. The West? Mostly quiet.

We go deep with Shuvaloy Majumdar, MP, former advisor at Foreign Affairs, and one of the sharpest, clearest voices on Middle East geopolitics today.

In this episode:

• 🔥 What Operation Rising Lion tells us about the new era of warfare
• 🧠 Why Iran isn’t just a regional threat—but a global one
• 🇮🇱 Why we should be thanking Israel
• 🛰 How Israel’s campaign could reshape the Middle East—and what it means for Iranian dissidents
• 🛑 And why “de-escalation” may be the most dangerous word in Western diplomacy right now

Plus:

• 🌍 Canada, the UK, and France: how the West is failing to lead
• 🎯 Why China and Russia are (for now) staying quiet
• 💡 The power vacuum inside Iran—and the once-in-a-generation opportunity it presents

And don’t miss:

• 🇨🇦 Our domestic lens:
  
   • How Iran’s reach extends into Canada’s real estate and political networks
  
   • Why we should prepare for increased domestic extremism
  
   • And why the response from Canada’s government has been morally bankrupt

Also in this episode:

• 📉 UK economy contracts 0.3%—we talk tax, talent, and the politics of non-doms
• 🚨 G7 trade wins: UK car tariffs down, UK-Canada security pact brewing, and a possible Carney–Trump deal in 30 days
• 🎖 Canada’s $9B defence announcement: long overdue, or spending set to burn?
• 🇺🇸 Trump’s departure from the G7 and ominous remarks on Iran: “It’s much bigger than a ceasefire…”

🔊 Listen now for the clearest, most sobering breakdown of the Israel–Iran conflict—and why it’s a hinge moment for the future of the West.

PM Mark Carney has committed to meeting NATO’s 2% target this year, nearly a decade ahead of Trudeau’s original pledge. That’s over $9 billion in new spending—including raises for CAF members, $2B in military aid to Ukraine, and major procurement commitments. But can it all be spent wisely?

In this episode:

• 🇨🇦 Why this announcement matters—and why it hits close to home for Joseph
• 💸 The risks of rushing defence procurement (and why it’s rarely done well)
• 🇬🇧 What the UK’s new Strategic Defence Review signals for joint defence priorities
• 🤝 Why now might be the right time for a Canada–UK security compact

Plus:

• 🧨 Labour’s massive U-turn on winter fuel benefits: smart politics or panic move?
• 🎯 Is there still room in politics for a sensible, fiscally responsible conservative party?
• 🇺🇸 Trump sends the Marines to California—why it may be a turning point. Or not.
• 📉 Canada’s jobless rate rises—are we seeing the limits of the Carney honeymoon?

And don’t miss:

• 🍺 Beer of the week: Hawkstone Lager
  
   • Andrew tastes a biscuit-forward Italian Pilsner with a crisp finish
  
   • Joseph declares it “a Helles lager met an Italian Pilsner and the two had a baby”

Every party says they want to fix the housing crisis. But on the ground, very little changes. Why?

This week on Craft Politics, we go deep with Chris Spoke—Toronto-based developer, housing policy advocate, and host of the Hogtown podcast. Chris isn’t just talking about the housing crisis. He’s trying to build through it.

In this episode:

• 🏘 Why zoning—not greed or foreign buyers—is the real problem
• 📉 Why the incentives in municipal politics make it nearly impossible to build
• 🗳 Why “local democracy” might be the biggest obstacle to affordability
• 📊 What a well-designed federal housing policy should look like—and why Trudeau’s version was better (in theory) than Poilievre’s
• 🧠 How to bring communities onside (hint: it’s not by yelling “YIMBY”)

Plus:

• 🌇 Why Canada’s post-WWII housing model doesn’t apply in 2025
• 🏗 The case for radical deregulation—and how Japan and New Zealand did it
• 📉 The wild stat about how few people it actually takes to block development
• 💥 The rise of “BANANAs” (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything)

And don’t miss:

• 🚫 Chris’s worst NIMBY moment
• 🧠 Rapid fire round: worst myth, best policy idea, and his favourite urbanist thinker
• 🧱 Why landlords aren’t to blame for high rents (but policy might be)

We wrap with:

• 🍺 This week’s tasting notes: Percy drinks a Christmas tree in a can, and Joseph finds his go-to BBQ lager.

🔊 Listen now if you want to understand why the system isn’t working—and what a serious housing fix actually looks like.

What happens when Conservatives run a strong urban campaign, knock on thousands of doors, and still fall short by 1.4%?

This week on Craft Politics, we sit down with Karen Stintz, a political veteran who nearly flipped Eglinton–Lawrence, one of the toughest ridings in the country for Conservatives to crack. She brings the hard-earned lessons from the 2025 campaign trail—and they’re ones the entire movement needs to hear.

In this episode:

• 🗳 What Karen’s close race reveals about urban voters’ shifting priorities
• 📉 Why the collapse of the NDP didn’t lead to a Conservative win
• 🏙 The myth that urban voters “just don’t get” conservatism—and how to break it
• 📺 The power of legacy media in big cities (and why it still shapes the ballot question)
• 🤝 Why it’s time for Conservatives to stop fighting and start making friends and allies

Plus:

• 🚨 We debate the missed opportunity for compassionate conservatism on homelessness and addiction
• 🇨🇦 Karen delivers a stinging critique: “How did we let patriotism slip away from us?”
• 🧱 Should the rebuilding of urban conservatism start at the municipal level?

And don’t miss:

• 🎤 A surprise drop-in from Andrew Percy, live from being eaten alive by Ottawa’s mosquitoes after attending the King’s Speech
• 🦝 Joseph’s failed political dreams of running a raccoon-free campaign for Mayor of Toronto
• 📰 An issue scan covering:
  
   • Charles III’s parliamentary visit
  
   • Carney’s single mandate letter
  
   • Reform UK’s lurch leftward to challenge Labour
  
   • And why CEO turnover is a sleeper political story

🔊 Listen now if you want to understand why urban ridings are still so hard to win—and what it’s going to take to change that.

To sort it all out, we’re joined by our colleague Christine Quigley, a seasoned political strategist and proud Remainer, who brings sharp insight and sharper opinions. Together with Andrew Percy (our resident Brexiteer) and Joseph Lavoie (your foreigner), we dive into:

🇬🇧 What this new agreement actually includes (yes, British sausages are back on the EU menu)

⚖️ The political balancing act Keir Starmer must pull off between urban Europhiles and working-class Brexit voters

🌍 Why this deal matters for Canada—and how it might complicate future trade with the UK

🎯 The growing Reform Party threat and what it says about voter trust in mainstream politics

🧠 And a spicy take: Has Brexit ironically made Britain more European?

Plus:

🥊 Christine and Andrew trade polite jabs across the Brexit divide

🇨🇦 Joseph explains why Canadians love the idea of being European—but not the trade-offs

🧀 And we ask: What is Canada willing to give up to strike new trade deals? Spoiler: probably not dairy.

🔊 Listen now if you’re curious about where Britain fits into the world post-Brexit, what lessons it holds for Canada, and why every serious trade deal comes down to the same question: What are you willing to give up to get what you want?

British politics just had its vibe checked—and the result? Reform UK is on the rise, the Tories are reeling, and Labour can’t seem to land a punch. So we called in one of the few Conservatives still winning elections to help us make sense of it all: Ben Houchen, the three-time elected Mayor of Tees Valley and a straight-talker from the Red Wall.

Joined by co-hosts Andrew Percy and Joseph Lavoie, this episode breaks down:

• Why Reform’s surge feels like Brexit 2.0
• How Labour can win the headlines but still lose the vote
• Whether we’re heading for a three-party system—or a Tory wipeout
• The realignment that’s reshaping British (and Canadian) conservatism
• What it’ll take to rebuild a competitive Conservative Party—from the vibes up

Plus:

🏗 Ben argues the future of the Conservative Party lies in blue-collar realignment, not home counties nostalgia.

🚨 Why a non-aggression pact with Reform is a non-starter—and what that means for the Tory path back.

📣 And Andrew tells the infamous story of (almost) endorsing Ben’s Labour opponent on live TV.

If you’re trying to decode the future of right-of-centre politics on both sides of the Atlantic, this is your must-listen episode.

We cover:

1. Carney White House Visit

2. UK/India Trade Deal

3. UK Local Elections

And on tap, we enjoy a Boréale IPA du Nord-Est with Krush Hops

We cover:

• Why Canada may be settling into a two-party system—and what that means for the NDP and voter coalitions
• The trap of 42%: Why Conservatives need to stop relying on vote splits and start expanding their base
• Is tone the final frontier? Why Pierre Poilievre’s ceiling may be more cultural than ideological
• The Conservative Party’s urban problem—and why cracking cities like Toronto and Vancouver may be the next big project
• Whether Carney’s coalition—ranging from Bay Street to campus leftists—is governable, not just winnable
• What a Trump second term could mean for Canadian sovereignty on trade, tariffs, and foreign policy
• And how regional tensions, from Western alienation to a resurgent Parti Québécois, could define the next chapter

Guest: Sean Speer – Editor-at-Large, The Hub

We tackle:

• Why the Liberals’ minority win is both change and more of the same
• How early voting and older demographics gave the Liberals their edge
• The collapse of the NDP and the myth of a youthquake
• The case for Pierre Poilievre staying on—and the case against
• Why Conservatives can’t afford to overcorrect… or under-learn
• Whether we’re already on the clock for the next electionPlus, Andrew vents about the “low-drama” vote counting process in Canada compared to the high-stakes theatre of a British election night.

On Tap:

• Pepper Lime Lager – Dead Frog Brewery
• Dale Dug a Hole Pale Ale – Backcountry Brewing

Next episode: We go deeper with The Hub’s Sean Spear for a full post-mortem on the election and what it means for Ottawa, the opposition, and the policy road ahead.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Election Night Reflections

00:05 Post-Election Reflections

03:01 Election Results Breakdown

06:06 Voter Dynamics and Expectations

08:54 Conservative Party's Future

12:00 Leadership and Party Dynamics

15:03 Youth Vote and Turnout Trends

18:12 Final Thoughts on Election Outcomes

24:05 Leadership Dynamics in Canadian Politics

28:19 The Future of Elections and Political Strategy

30:51 Campaigns: The Importance of Tone and Local Candidates

34:12 Election Day Experiences: A Comparative Perspective

40:03 Tasting Notes

We start with a big-picture analysis of the national race: Is this election a true battle of leadership vibes? Has Mark Carney neutralized the ideological contrast with Poilievre by simply being less of a liability? And why does the rise in advance polling numbers say more about convenience than political momentum?

We then dig into the courts’ growing role in settling cultural debates, using the UK’s recent ruling on gender and sex as a case study in political cowardice and institutional offloading. If you advise boards or manage reputation risk, you’ll want to hear he implications for private sector policy-making.

Also on the docket: Why the Trump administration’s ban on synthetic food dyes isn’t as contradictory as it seems—and what it tells us about modern populism’s ideological flexibility.

Finally, we tap into Mike’s expertise on the BC landscape: What’s behind the NDP’s collapse? Could Jagmeet Singh lose his seat? And why might BC be the reason this race ends in a majority—or doesn’t?

This one’s packed with analysis, beer reviews, and real talk about the subtle mechanics of modern campaigns. Pour a Kölsch and tune in.

Featuring:

• Mike McDonald (Hotel Pacifico, former Chief of Staff to BC Premier)
• Joseph Lavoie
• Andrew Percy

On Tap:

• Tofino Brewing’s Glowing Embers
• Brassneck’s Klutz Kölsch

Next week, join us for our post-election breakdown with The Hub’s Sean Speer.

Chapters

00:00 Welcome

03:57 Federal Election Insights

06:02 UK Supreme Court Ruling on Gender and Its Implications

14:38 US Health Secretary's Ban on Synthetic Food Dyes

19:37 Mike McDonald

22:36 The Current Political Landscape in Canada

25:31 The Role of the NDP and BC's Unique Political Environment

28:20 The Future of the NDP and Liberal Party Dynamics

31:34 Conservative Strategies and Voter Appeal

34:29 The Impact of Early Voting and Turnout Predictions

37:31 Election Night Predictions and Key Battlegrounds

40:37 The Influence of Regional Politics on National Elections

43:32 Final Thoughts on Leadership and Future Directions

Chapters

00:00 The town that fun forgot....Ottawa

02:24 This week's beer

04:18 Issues Scan: Buttongate

10:05 Issues Scan: Tout Le Monde En Parle

17:41 Issues Scan: Do Debates Matter?

21:05 Issues Scan: UK Recalls Parliament

32:46 NDP's Current Standing and Voter Dynamics

38:13 Leadership Changes and Voter Sentiment

41:35 Provincial vs Federal Party Dynamics

45:16 The Future of the NDP and Election Strategies

51:08 Key Writings to Watch on Election Night

53:00 Lessons from Alberta's NDP Campaign

55:15 Is Western separation a concern?

58:13 What's no one talking about in this campaign?

01:02:48 Tasting Notes

What is it, exactly? What implications does it have for voters? What impact does it have on the spread of polarized political views?

Andrew and Joseph also touch on global economic concerns and the rising sentiment of Western separatism in Canada.This week's beer? Ostro, by Superflux and Four Winds.

Here's a link to one of the stories we referenced on the show: A network of X accounts is targeting Canada ahead of the election - The Logic

Chapters

00:00 Intro and Beer Selection

02:36 Issues Scan: Western Separatism in Canada

09:46 Issues Scan: US Market Fallout to Tariffs

14:36 Issues Scan: UK Tariff Response

19:17 What exactly is foreign interference?

28:11 Why does China interfere?

33:51 To what end?

38:12 Government Response and Public Trust

42:50 Weaknesses in the Canadian Political System

44:39 The Impact of Foreign Interference on Elections

47:44 Understanding the Dynamics of Influence and Advocacy

51:42 The Complexity of Foreign Influence in Democratic Systems

56:07 Introduction and Personal Updates56:10 Wrap-Up and Beer Tasting Notes

Chapters

00:00 Beers, Banter, and Things to Watch

21:00 Interview with James Moore

27:01 The Current Political Landscape

30:03 The Two-Horse Race: Carney vs. Poilievre

32:49 The Impact of Historical Context on Current Politics

36:06 The Influence of Trump on Canadian Conservatism

39:20 The Threat of Trump and Canadian Identity

40:57 The Conservative Party's Challenge

43:20 Desire for Change vs. Stability

46:21 Campaign Dynamics and Candidate Experience

47:53 First 100 Days o

50:20 Coalition Challenges and Political Strategy

Plus, we talk top secret chats on Signal and why the local election in the UK matter as a reflection of national sentiments.

Chapters

00:00 Beer Talk

01:57 Canadian Federal Election

04:48 Polling Dynamics and Party Strategies

07:37 The Trump Factor in Canadian Politics

10:38 NDP's Position and Challenges

13:44 Conservative Campaign Strategies

16:43 The Role of Leadership and Image

19:51 Future of the NDP and Coalition Politics

24:44 Shifting Political Landscapes in Canada

25:48 Signal and Top Secret War Chat

30:34 Local Elections in the UK: A Temperature Check

37:49 The Future of the Conservative Party in the UK

We analyze the performances of key candidates, particularly Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, and explore the impact of Donald Trump on the ballot question.

We also geek out on the strategies employed by Carney's campaign, the public's perception of him, and the expectations surrounding his leadership.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Beer Selection

17:32 Mark Carney's Dominance in the Race

20:25 Christia Freeland's Campaign and Future

23:25 The Impact of Trump on Canadian Politics

26:22 Mark Carney's Authenticity and Campaign Strategy

29:29 Expectations and Risks for Carney's Leadership

32:37 The Role of Campaign Tactics in Carney's Success

35:20 Surprises and Insights from the Leadership Race

They reflect on the state of democracy and the challenges facing Western alliances, emphasizing the need for a reevaluation of diplomatic strategies in light of recent events.

The conversation is marked by a mix of personal anecdotes and serious political analysis, highlighting the emotional toll of the current political landscape.

Takeaways

• The current political climate is rapidly changing and unpredictable.
• Trump's leadership is reshaping global alliances and perceptions.
• NATO's reliability as a defence alliance is in question
• Diplomatic strategies with Trump require careful consideration.-
• The emotional response to political events is significant for analysts.
• The need for businesses to reassess their risk management in light of U.S. politics.
• The Western Alliance is facing unprecedented challenges.
• The impact of tariffs and trade policies on international relations is profound.
• The future of global security may require a rethinking of alliances.

We explore the methodologies behind polling, the significance of leadership changes, and the economic factors influencing voter sentiment. The discussion also touches on the challenges faced by the NDP and the potential effects of the Trump administration on Canadian politics.

@CraftPolitics‬

Follow us @CraftPolitics on Instagram, X, and TikTok.

But the real highlight? A chat with their very first guest, Ian Robertson, a seasoned strategist and partner at Jefferson Hawthorne. Ian takes us behind the scenes of corporate boardrooms, where big decisions meet bigger egos, and helps us unpack why corporate America is cooling off on DEI initiatives. He shares how businesses can move from virtue signalling to strategic empathy, why understanding stakeholder values is key, and what happens when you don’t have a plan for those tricky political and social issues.

Of course, it’s not all serious—Joseph and Andrew wrap things up with a pint in hand, rating the beer of the week and promising plenty more insights and fun in the episodes to come.

‪@CraftPolitics‬Follow us @CraftPolitics on Instagram, X, and TikTok.